P

The Canadian Bank LEAPS Handbook v4.0

The Official Companion App · Educational — not financial advice

Run weekly before any new LEAPS entry. All four gates plus a passing score must be confirmed before entering new positions.
Trend — XIU.TO
XIU price ($)
50-day MA ($)
200-day MA ($)
SPY above 200-day?
Volatility auto · editable
VIX current · Check ↗
VIX 20-day avg
BoC rates auto · editable
Overnight rate (%)
Direction
CA 10-year yield (%)
TSX sector leadership (30-day %)
Financials XFN
Energy XEG
Technology TXF
Utilities ZUT
Materials XMA
Staples XST
Most deep out-of-the-money LEAPS expire worthless — you can lose the whole premium. Five-gate screening model: speculative, defined-risk bets. The tier figures come from a point-in-time snapshot of 28 positions that were all in unrealized gain when captured (survivorship-limited, one sector, one period — not a forecast or a success rate). Enter all strikes under $8 to compare.
Stock info
Ticker
Current price ($)
Expiry date (YYYY-MM-DD)
Historical returns (Barchart Performance tab)
1-year %
2-year %
3-year %
5-year %
10-year %
Options to analyze Enter all under $8
Strike ($) Ask ($) Open Interest
Capital available Gate 5
Budget for this position ($) — leave blank for tier-default sizing
App calculates max contracts from capital ÷ (ask × 100), then applies tier. Lower of the two wins.
Edge is a column, not a verdict. Edge Explorer shows every contract at or under your premium ceiling, across every institution it scans, side by side — it does not choose between them. Opens sorted by bank, then strike; tap Edge to sort by it, long-press (or shift-click) a second column to add a tiebreaker.
Scan
Your own names, scanned with the same five gates. Canadian symbols resolve to the .TO listing; tap the × on any name to remove it — originals come back if you re-add them by symbol. ↻ Reset to defaults
Capital per position ($) — blank for tier-default sizing
▸  Criteria tap to open
Not financial advice. You pick the column to sort by — the table itself ranks nothing and recommends nothing. Most deep out-of-the-money LEAPS expire worthless, so the whole premium can be lost. Sizing is shown per position; it doesn’t total your exposure across several at once.
Position details
Stock price ($)
Shares held
Strike price ($)
Premium received ($)
Days to expiry
Quarterly dividend ($)
Ex-dividend date in window?
Portfolio details
Total portfolio value ($)
Archetype (Chapter 5)
Conservative
Balanced
Growth
Option premium per share ($)
Score and rank Canadian bond ETFs as a stability layer alongside your LEAPS strategy. Enter up to 5 ETFs.
Score up to 5 stocks simultaneously. Run before the LEAP Analyzer on any non-bank growth stock.
Total invested
$0
Current value
$0
Total P&L
$0
—
Open positions
0
📸 Import from a holdings screenshot
Snap your broker's holdings screen. Claude reads the rows; you confirm every field before anything is saved. Requires an API key (Settings tab).
Add position
Ticker
Type
Entry ($)
Quantity
Unit
Strike ($)
Expiry (options)
Current ($)
Bid ($)
Ask ($)
Daily chg ($)
Daily chg (%)
Notes / thesis
Prices updated manually. Not financial advice. Educational purposes only.
CCI is the most real-time indicator — catches turning points before MACD and RSI confirm. Three-indicator confluence is the highest conviction entry signal.
Stock & trend
Ticker
Current price ($)
20-day MA ($)
200-day MA ($)
CCI Most real-time
CCI value (14 or 20 period)
CCI signal direction
RSI and MACD
RSI (14-period)
MACD signal
Volume vs avg
Candlestick
TD app market data
Bid ($)
Ask ($)
% Change
IV (%)
Open interest
Write your rationale before you place the trade — not after. This is the behavioural discipline the journal provides.
Log a trade
Date
Ticker
Action
Strike ($)
Premium ($)
Rationale (write before outcome is known)
Outcome / lesson (fill after close)
How this app works. The path from a market scan to a sized position, laid out here so the working screens stay uncluttered.
Beginner⏱ 4 min read
Your path through the app
📘
Foundations
why banks, why LEAPS, which account
⚙️
Option Mechanics
what makes a LEAP worth what it is
📊
Three Perspectives
read the odds honestly, not optimistically
⚠️
Common Mistakes
the traps that quietly cost money
🔍
Discover
scan the chains, watch the five gates screen
💰
Execute
plan the exit and size the position
📈
Grow
track the book honestly over time
The first four are here in Educate. The last three are the working screens — Discover, Execute, Grow — where the same ideas do the job.
Edge Explorer — how it works
Choose your budget
Set your capital per position
Scan option chains
Across the institutions it scans
Explore results
Every contract under your ceiling
Five-Gate Analysis
See why each passes or fails
Educational only — not financial advice. This describes how the tools work; it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
FAQ — educational only, not advice / not tax advice. Plain answers distilled from a group learning session. Examples are frozen illustrations, not live quotes or recommendations.
ReferenceSearchable
Educational only. These answers summarise a learning discussion. Deep out-of-the-money LEAPS can expire worthless — a total loss of the premium. Any past return mentioned is one person's claim on a small sample in one sector and period; it is not a projection, a win rate, or a promise. Confirm anything tax-related with a qualified advisor. Distilled from the "Education on Investment Ideas" session, 11 Jul 2026.
Three Perspectives. The same contract, read three ways — the Market View (the probability the price itself implies), the Statistical Model (that same maths plus a sober growth assumption), and the Scenario Model (which carries a hot run forward). The gaps between them, not any one number, are the point.
Advanced⏱ 10 min read
The same contract, three perspectives
Worked on a Royal Bank $400 call, ~1.5 years out, stock near $298 — illustrative. Each perspective’s probability of the stock finishing above the strike at expiry:
Market View
N(d₂) — what the price implies, no growth assumed
~7%
Statistical Model
the price’s volatility + a sober 8%/yr growth
~21%
Scenario Model
extrapolates the recent run — feels inevitable
~50%
The Scenario Model treats the base case as a coin flip. The option’s own price — its N(d₂) — implies far less: about one-in-fourteen, with no growth assumption at all. Add a sober 8%/yr growth view and the Statistical Model reads about one-in-five. The market’s number is the anchor; every step above it is a step into your own optimism. Most deep out-of-the-money LEAPS expire worthless.
Why they differ
The Scenario Model assumes the last three years repeat — the least reliable assumption in markets. The Statistical Model instead prices in how much the stock actually swings (its implied volatility over the time to expiry) and reads the cheap premium as the market saying “long shot.” Neither view is hidden: the app shows all three, and why they diverge.
What a “boom” actually changes — the regime dial
A boom is defined by contrast, not level. A 20-year “+1,000%” is only about 13% a year — compounding, not a boom. The honest signal is recent pace vs long-run pace: when the last year runs several times above the long-run rate, that is a boom. And a boom widens the band and trims the size — it never raises the target. Good conditions buy more humility, not a bigger bet.
Why a winning streak isn’t proof
This approach is designed to profit at low hit rates — a few big winners outweigh many losers. So you can be winning and still be at roughly one-in-five per trade; the profit does not prove the odds were higher. A run of wins during one sector’s bull market is closer to a single correlated bet that paid off, repeated — not many independent proofs. The test that separates a real edge from a lucky regime is whether the winning survives a bad period for the sector. Until then, keep the honest odds and keep the sizing.
Educational only — not financial advice. The figures above are an illustrative worked example, not a forecast, a probability guarantee, or a recommendation.
Common Mistakes. Five ideas that feel obviously true and quietly cost people money. Each one is a place where a number means less than it looks like it does.
Intermediate⏱ 6 min read
1 · A cheap option is not a bargain
A low premium is not a discount — it is the market’s verdict. Thousands of buyers and sellers priced that contract at $2, and the cheapness is them saying “this is a long shot.” The Market View (N(d₂)) reads that price straight back as a low probability. Cheap because unlikely, not unlikely-and-cheap.
2 · A high delta does not mean exercise
When a deep in-the-money LEAPS has a delta near 1, it moves almost dollar-for-dollar with the stock — but that is not a signal to exercise. As long as any time value remains, selling captures both the intrinsic value and that time value; exercising forfeits the time value. Exercise only to hold the shares long term, or when an upcoming dividend outweighs the time value given up.
3 · In the money is not the same as in profit
“In the money” means the stock is above the strike. It does not mean you made money — you paid a premium, so you only profit above break-even (strike + premium). And the reverse trap is just as common: a contract can be up in price while the stock is still below the strike, so “in profit” and “in the money” are two different things.
4 · Low volatility does not guarantee success
Low implied volatility makes an option cheaper, which feels like an edge. But volatility is also how far the market expects the stock to travel — and a deep out-of-the-money call needs a big move to pay off. Low IV means the market expects a smaller move, so it is a lower chance of reaching the strike, not a hidden bargain.
5 · Do not chase recent performance
A lookback table is all green because the stock survived and sits near a high — it hides the drawdowns inside each period (the 2020 crash, the 2023 bank scare). A run that is hot relative to its own long-run pace is a reason for more humility, not a bigger bet: it widens the honest range and trims the position size. A winning streak in one sector during one bull market is closer to a single correlated bet that paid off than to proof the odds were ever high.
Educational only — not financial advice / not tax advice. These are general concepts illustrated with fixed examples, never guidance on a specific contract or a recommendation to buy, sell, or exercise.
Calibration Log — the only thing in this app that can test the model against reality. Every Edge Explorer scan records each contract it finds — including the ones you do not buy — with the odds the model gave it that day. As those contracts expire, this asks one question: when the model said 15%, did 15% happen?

The 28-position record cannot answer that. It was selected on its outcome — every position in it is a winner — so it can only ever agree with itself. This log is selected on nothing.

Nothing here leaves this device.
Model odds vs what actually happened
Foundations. Learn the ideas before the tools. Everything here uses fixed, labelled examples — it explains concepts, never what to buy.
Beginner⏱ 12 min read
Introduction to LEAPS
LEAPS stands for Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities — simply options with more than a year to expiry, often one to three years out. A LEAP call is the right, not the obligation, to buy 100 shares per contract at a fixed strike price any time before it expires. The extra time is what sets it apart from a short-dated option: more room for a thesis to play out — but you still pay for that time, and it still decays. This app focuses on deep out-of-the-money bank and financial LEAP calls: cheap, low-probability, high-payoff-if-right. Most expire worthless. The strategy is deliberately built to profit at low hit rates, where a few large winners outweigh many small losses.
Why Canadian financials?
The Big Six banks — the primary focus
The model was built and calibrated on Canada’s six large banks (RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, NA). They share traits that make a long-dated thesis legible: an oligopoly market structure, long dividend records, deep option liquidity, and a common bank capital regime (CET1). Every tier statistic and the reference snapshot in this app come entirely from these names.
Other financials — wider access
The same screening method can be pointed at other Canadian financials — life insurers (e.g. Manulife, Sun Life, Great-West) and alternative lenders (e.g. Equitable Bank) — using the single-ticker tools. Three honest caveats:
Context for understanding the strategy’s scope — not a recommendation to buy any of these.
Options — calls vs puts
A call is the right to buy at the strike; a put is the right to sell at the strike. This strategy uses long calls only — you buy a call when you expect the shares to be meaningfully higher by expiry. Your risk is capped at the premium you pay, and you can lose all of it; your upside is open-ended if the stock climbs well past the strike. Remember the unit: one contract controls 100 shares, so a premium quoted per share is multiplied by 100 for a single contract.
Educational only — not financial advice. Concepts and illustrative examples, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Option Mechanics. The handful of numbers that decide what a LEAP is worth — and the ones this app leans on. Illustrative throughout.
Intermediate⏱ 18 min read
Delta — leverage, not the odds
Delta measures how much the option’s price moves for a $1 move in the stock — the hedge ratio, and your read on leverage. At 0.20, the option moves about 20¢ for every $1 the stock moves, so a cheap contract can multiply many times over if the stock runs. Delta gets read as a rough chance of finishing in the money, but it sits a little above the true figure — the honest probability is N(d₂) (see Three Perspectives), which lands just below delta. Low delta is the thesis, not a warning: a small premium for a large payoff if it hits — which is exactly why sizing, not conviction, has to hold the line.
0.20
lots of leverage
0.50
moves halfway
0.80
tracks closely
0.95
nearly the stock
The bar is how much it moves, not the odds it pays off. For the probability of finishing in the money, see N(d₂) in Three Perspectives.
Theta & time decay
Theta is the daily cost of time. An option is partly a claim on time, and that time value erodes toward zero by expiry — slowly at first for a long-dated LEAP, faster in the final months. Think of time as a runway, not a return: it gives the thesis room to work, but shorten the clock and the same optimistic case can fall short of a strike that never moved. That is why this approach buys years, not weeks.
Implied volatility
Implied volatility (IV) is the market’s expectation of how much the stock will swing, backed out of the option’s price. Higher IV means a pricier option — more expected movement to pay for. It is also an input to the honest odds: the Statistical Model in Three Perspectives uses the stock’s own implied volatility to estimate the real chance of finishing in the money, which is usually well below the optimistic scenario view.
Intrinsic vs extrinsic value
Every premium splits in two. Intrinsic value is the part that is really there — for a call, how far the stock sits above the strike (zero if it’s below). Extrinsic value (also called time value) is everything else you pay: the option-ness — time, volatility, and the chance the stock gets there. Deep out-of-the-money LEAPS are almost all extrinsic value, which is why they decay so much.
Intrinsic value Extrinsic (time) value
Deep out-of-the-money LEAPS
A little in the money
Deep in the money
As a call moves deeper in the money, intrinsic value grows and time value shrinks. That is the whole idea behind selling a ripe LEAPS: once it’s mostly intrinsic, there’s little time value left to lose.
⚠ Naming trap: never abbreviate Intrinsic Value as “IV.” In options, IV always means Implied Volatility. Write Intrinsic Value out in full.
The payoff at expiry — where break-even sits
Below the strike the call expires worthless and you lose the whole premium — but that premium is the most you can lose. Above the strike it has value; you only turn a profit once the stock clears break-even (strike + premium), and every dollar past that is yours. Small capped downside, large open upside — the shape of the whole strategy.
max loss = the premium strike break-even profit grows dollar-for-dollar stock price at expiry
Quick formulas
Break-even
Strike + Premium
Intrinsic Value
max(Stock − Strike, 0)
Max loss
Premium × 100 × N
Return
Profit ÷ Cost
One contract controls 100 shares — a $2.50 premium costs $250 before commissions. Intrinsic Value is written in full on purpose: in options, “IV” always means Implied Volatility.
Educational only — not financial advice. Concepts and illustrative examples, not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
The EDGE Workflow
Educational only — not financial advice. A map of how the app is meant to be used, in order. You control every decision.
App build
Confirms which version is live. If this doesn't match your latest upload, the browser is serving a cached copy or an older file was deployed.
2026-07-21-acadhome1
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Market Analysis

VIX normal zone upper limit
default 22
VIX fear zone upper limit
default 30
Strong Bull minimum score
default 75

LEAP Analyzer

⚠ The ceiling and tier boundaries below are tied to the fixed historical tier stats (n=11 / 15 / 1), which were bucketed at the default lines. Moving them relabels contracts against returns gathered at the old boundaries. Minimum edge ratio is safe to change — it touches no historical stat.
Maximum premium ceiling ($)
default $5.00
Tier A ceiling ($)
default $1.00
Tier B ceiling ($)
default $3.00
Minimum edge ratio
default 3×

CCI / RSI thresholds

CCI overbought
default +100
CCI oversold
default -100
RSI overbought
default 70
RSI oversold
default 35

Deep Dive conviction tiers

High conviction minimum
default 80
Medium conviction minimum
default 65
Watchlist minimum
default 50
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Alerts check when you open the app. No push notifications — check this tab weekly.
Your personal performance record. Aggregates all positions to show win rate, returns by tier, and comparison against the reference-snapshot benchmarks (survivorship-limited). Improves with every position you close.
Sunday evening ritual. One tap generates your complete weekly briefing — market conditions, portfolio alerts, position milestones, and what to watch this week.
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AI Gate Checker — describe a position in plain English or take a photo of your options chain. Requires an Anthropic API key.
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Option 1 — Take a photo or upload a screenshot
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Portfolio Health Monitor — AI reviews your saved positions for attention items. Requires an Anthropic API key.
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Illustrative only — not tax advice. Capital Transition Strategy: for a deep in-the-money LEAPS, compare exercising, selling, moving into a TFSA, or rolling. Pick a saved position to auto-fill it, then add today’s stock price.